True to projections, the South Africans outpassed us, outran us and outperformed us in that semi-final of the AFCON on Wednesday.
But guess what? Which team is playing in Sunday’s final? Certainly not the South Africans.
Nigeria plays in her 8th AFCON final on Sunday in Abidjan following other outings in 1980, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1994, 2000, and 2013. Can Nigeria win? What do the history books say? There is the good news, the bad news, and the not-so-good news. For those who love to follow what the history books say
Last time in Ivory Coast
Nigeria has played the AFCON before in the Ivory Coast and qualified for the final. That was in 1984.
Nigeria had a very young team led by Adegboye Onigbende, captained by Stephen Keshi and with exciting players like Yisa Sofoluwe, Bright Omokaro, Sunday Eboigbe, Muda Lawal, Paul Okoku, Chibuzor Ehilegbu, Henry Nwosu, Humphrey Edobor amongst others.
After scoring first against a robust Cameroon, early in the game through Muda Lawal, the team crumbled and lost 3-1 to a Theophile Abega and Roger Milla-led side.
So, according to history, we do not win the Cup finals in Abidjan.
Three out of four final losses to the same team
Now, do you want the good news or bad news first? Okay, let me start with the good news. At least you will rejoice a bit.
Nigeria has been in seven previous finals and lost four of them. Now the good news is that three of the four finals we lost were to Cameroon. Hey! Check! We are not playing Cameroon today, so is this not good news enough? It means history is on our side, right?
But here is the bad news. The only other time we did not lose to Cameroon in the final, was in 1990 to Algeria. Now, here is the thing. The Algerians we lost to in the final in 1990 were the hosts. Guess what? We play the hosts today.
The Ivory Coast factor in Nigeria’s wins
Every time Nigeria has won the AFCON, we played against Ivory Coast before the final.
In 1980, Nigeria was in the same group with the Ivory Coast and it ended goaless. Nigeria went on the win the Cup beating Algeria 3-1 in the final.
In 1994, there was a difficult game that ended via penalty shoot-out in the semi final. It ended 2-2 at Full Time with Michel Bassole the torn in Nigeria’s flesh, scoring a brace. Ben Iroha and Rashidi Yekini scored to ensure the game was a draw and went to the the Shootout that Nigeria won 4-2.
In 2013, Nigeria met Ivory Coast in the quarter-final in South Africa. Nigeria won that game 2-1 and won the final 1-0 against Burkina Faso.
Another key one?
In 1988, 1990, and 2013, Nigeria met the team they played in the final previously at the group stage, so what do the numbers say?
In 1988, Nigeria drew against Cameroon 1-1 in the group stage then lost in the final 1-0.
In 1990, Nigeria lost to Algeria 5-1 in the group stage, then 1-0 in the final.
In 2013, Nigeria drew 1-1 against Burkina Faso in the group stage, then won 1-0 in the final. This is a very useless statistic, so we move on from here. It tells no story. Nonsense!
Who wins the AFCON in Abidjan
Nigeria wins. The Super Eagles will be difficult to crack, the defence will be watertight, the midfielders will battle, and the attackers will run. The Ivorien defenders will cut off Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, but that won’t stop Osimhen from constantly running at them. He will press them until he tires out and tires them out too.
The Super Eagles will maintain their shape and will keep their discipline all game long. They will also allow the Ivoriens to outpass and outrun them too.
The Ivoriens will want to impress. They were beaten in the group stage by this same Nigerian side and were lucky to even qualify, now they are in the final. They changed from a foreign coach to a home coach and have done the business. They will also be in front of a boisterous home crowd. Everything is in place for a win.
But the goal will come from the most unlikely of sources. The Cup will return to Abuja and then the destruction of the Super Eagles will begin.
